WM 2026 Gruppen-Prognosen: Wer kommt weiter?

The biggest change: 48 teams, 12 groups, new R32 round

WC 2026 is the first with 48 teams. Format: 12 groups of 4 (A–L). The top two plus the eight best third-placed teams advance to the new Round of 32 — knockouts begin June 28.

Group stage runs June 11–27. 72 matches in 17 days, 16 stadiums across the US, Mexico, and Canada.

Group A — Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia

Mexico is clear favourite (home advantage, Azteca opener). South Korea with Son Heung-min is second force. South Africa stabilized under Hugo Broos; Czechia surprising after a tough generational transition.

Pick: 1. Mexico, 2. South Korea, 3. Czechia (advancing as best third), 4. South Africa.

Group B — Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina

Switzerland under Yakin remains reliable; Canada have Davies and home climate. Qatar know the WC level. Bosnia only qualified via the playoff against Italy.

Pick: 1. Switzerland, 2. Canada, 3. Bosnia, 4. Qatar.

Group C — Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti

Brazil under Ancelotti (first non-Brazilian coach!) stays favourite, but Morocco after the 2022 semi-final run is no surprise anymore. Scotland in their first WC since 1998; Haiti since 1974.

Pick: 1. Brazil, 2. Morocco, 3. Scotland, 4. Haiti.

Group D — USA, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye

USA as co-host with Pochettino as new coach have the biggest expectations. Türkiye with Çalhanoğlu and Güler is European class. Paraguay and Australia fight for third.

Pick: 1. USA, 2. Türkiye, 3. Paraguay (as best third), 4. Australia.

Group E — Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao

Germany should win the group comfortably. More interesting: second place — Ivory Coast as AFCON 2024 winners or Beccacece's pressing Ecuador? Curaçao is the smallest nation ever to qualify.

Pick: 1. Germany, 2. Ivory Coast, 3. Ecuador, 4. Curaçao.

Group F — Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden

Netherlands favoured, but Sweden with Isak and Gyökeres up front is dangerous. Japan beat both Germany and Spain in 2022 — they're officially elite. Tunisia defensively solid.

Pick: 1. Netherlands, 2. Sweden, 3. Japan (best third), 4. Tunisia.

Group G — Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand

Belgium under Rudi Garcia in generational transition. Salah's Egypt and Iran's defence are serious competition. New Zealand classic underdog.

Pick: 1. Belgium, 2. Egypt, 3. Iran, 4. New Zealand.

Group H — Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde

Spain as Euro 2024 winners is co-favourite for the trophy. Bielsa's Uruguay directly behind. Saudi Arabia beat Argentina in 2022, let's not forget. Cape Verde's WC debut.

Pick: 1. Spain, 2. Uruguay, 3. Saudi Arabia, 4. Cape Verde.

Group I — France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq (Group of Death)

The official "Group of Death" with the toughest FIFA average (25.75). France favoured, but Norway with Haaland and Ødegaard, Senegal with Mané/Jackson, Iraq the underdog — every match a match.

Pick: 1. France, 2. Norway, 3. Senegal, 4. Iraq.

Group J — Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan

Argentina as reigning champions with Messi's sixth (and final) WC. Rangnick's Austria back after 28 years. Algeria the African outsider, Jordan on debut.

Pick: 1. Argentina, 2. Austria, 3. Algeria, 4. Jordan.

Group K — Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo

Ronaldo's last WC. Colombia with James as old-school playmaker. Uzbekistan's debut with Cannavaro (!) as coach. DR Congo first WC since 1974.

Pick: 1. Portugal, 2. Colombia, 3. DR Congo, 4. Uzbekistan.

Group L — England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana

England-Croatia is the fifth meeting in eight years. Modrić's Croatia vs Tuchel's England. Ghana without a permanent coach (Otto Addo sacked in March), Panama as CONCACAF outsider.

Pick: 1. England, 2. Croatia, 3. Ghana, 4. Panama.

Most likely R32 qualifiers

Based on these predictions, ~24 teams advance directly plus the 8 best thirds. Real surprises always happen in match 2 — when favourites get nervous and underdogs find their rhythm.

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