Markt-Konsens: Warum wir Echtgeld-Prognosen zeigen.

What is a prediction market?

Imagine a stock exchange, but instead of shares you trade probabilities. "Brazil beats Germany" costs, say, 62 cents. If it happens, you get 1 dollar. The price equals the market's opinion. 62 cents means: the market sees a 62% chance.

Why is that better than bookmaker odds? Bookmakers bake in their margin. The odds aren't an honest signal — they're a sales offer. Prediction markets like Polymarket have no margin — real people put real money on what they believe.

The market-consensus bar

In tiptilldone you see a colored bar next to every match. It shows you the market consensus: how the market rates the probabilities for home win, draw, and away win. Green for home, gray for draw, coral for away.

You don't need to understand the bar to play. It's a visual signal — a second opinion next to your gut feeling.

What the bar is not

Market consensus is not a tipping advisor. It doesn't tell you what to tip. It shows you what thousands of Polymarket participants believe with their own money. That's a difference.

Markets get it wrong too. Leicester 2016. Greece 2004. The best stories in football happen exactly when the market is wrong.

Why we show it

Because we think you deserve this information. Until now this stuff was buried in trading apps. We put it right next to the tip button — free, for everyone. No premium gate, no subscription. Just a better basis for your next tip.